Economics Division Seminar Series

A Fundamental Shock

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A Fundamental Shock: A DGSE Model of the 600-year demographic-economic history and the Rise of the English EconomyDr Joe Peng Zhou, Cardiff Metropolitan University

  • From: Wednesday 5 March 2014, 2 pm
  • To: Wednesday 5 March 2014, 3.30 pm
  • Location: Newton Lecture Theatre 5, Newton building, Main Entrance, Nottingham Trent University, City Campus, Goldsmith Street, Nottingham, NG1 4BU

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Event details

A Fundamental Shock: A DGSE Model of the 600-year demographic-economic history and the Rise of the English EconomyDr Joe Peng Zhou, Cardiff Metropolitan University

Abstract:

We construct a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the interaction between demography and the economy for 600 years of English history. The DSGE model does a surprisingly good job in quantitatively matching the sample moments in historical data. We find that the mortality shocks of the fourteenth century had remarkably persistent effects on the economy—specifically on real wages and population—and to some extent determined the timing of Industrial Revolution. A key shock transmission mechanism is female age at marriage, which is also essential to accumulate human capital. Without this mechanism, wage and output would have been halved at the end of the 19th century. Besides, both Malthusian “preventive check” and "positive check" are verified in the model simulation.

About the author:

After graduation from Peking University with a degree in Philosophy, Dr Zhou obtained a PhD in Economics at Cardiff University. He is now a lecturer in Economics and Finance at Cardiff Metropolitan University. His research focuses on applied microeconomics and macroeconomics, trying to combine economic modelling techniques with various socioeconomic issues such as government policy, entrepreneurship, trade and economic history. In addition to a series of academic journal papers, he has recently published a textbook of Advanced Macroeconomics in Chinese. He is also active in peer-reviews for the Journal of International Review of Entrepreneurship and ESRC funding projects.

Booking information

Please book your place by emailing Piers Thompson (external speaker series coordinator).

Location details

Room/Building:

Newton Lecture Theatre 5, Newton building, Main Entrance

Address:

Nottingham Trent University
City Campus
Goldsmith Street
Nottingham
NG1 4BU

Past event

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