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Applied Economics and Policy Analysis Research Seminar Series

Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?

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Seminars

This paper focuses on consumers’ perceptions and expectations of inflation and interest rates and confidence therein. Based on a sound identification, and relying on above 15,000 observations, spanning over 12 FOMC press conferences between December 2015 and June 2018, we document the impact of the central bank communication on the general public.

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Little is known on how and whether central bank announcements affect consumers’ beliefs about policy-relevant economic figures. This paper focuses on consumers’ perceptions and expectations of inflation and interest rates and confidence therein. Based on a sound identification (running surveys shortly before and after communication events), and relying on above 15,000 observations, spanning over 12 FOMC press conferences between December 2015 and June 2018, we document the impact of the central bank communication on the general public.

While announcement events have no measurable direct effect on average beliefs, they make people more likely to receive news about the central bank’s policy. In general, informed consumers tend to have lower perceptions and expectations, higher confidence and, at least for perceived inflation, smaller errors.

The external speaker series presentation will be given by Dr Dmitri Vinogradov (University of Glasgow). Dmitri is a Senior Lecturer in Corporate Finance and Banking. Previously, Dmitri worked for 10 years at the Essex Business School, University of Essex (UK), and before that worked at the University of Heidelberg (Germany) and the Higher School of Economics, Moscow (Russia).

Dmitri's research is in applied microeconomics of uncertainty, with applications to financial markets, banking and public finance. In particular, Dmitri studies how uncertainty affects decisions and the welfare of ordinary people, how public announcements and information inflow translate into expectations, and how political and financial institutions can help improve our well-being. Dmitri has worked on projects funded by the EU (TACIS), UN (WIDER), British Academy, Bank of England, among others.

This event is open to all NTU staff, students and Doctoral candidates.

Location details

Address:

NEWN39A
Newton Building
Nottingham

Past event

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