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Mathematical Sciences Research Seminar Series

Stochastic SIR-type epidemic models with network structure

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Seminars

As part of the School of Science and Technology Mathematical Sciences Research Seminar Series, Dr Dave Sirl, University of Nottingham presents: Stochastic SIR-type epidemic models with network structure.

  • From: Wednesday 11 March 2020, 1 pm
  • To: Wednesday 11 March 2020, 2 pm
  • Location: 169, New Hall Block, Nottingham Trent University, Clifton Campus, Clifton Lane, Nottingham, NG11 8NS
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Event details

As part of the School of Science and Technology Mathematical Sciences Research Seminar Series, Dr Dave Sirl, University of Nottingham presents: Stochastic SIR-type epidemic models with network structure.

Abstract

Network epidemic models have developed enormously in the last 20 years or so in response to some of the unrealistic assumptions of homogeneity in most simple epidemic models. A significant feature of most epidemic-on-a-network models is that the epidemic  evolves on a static network. We consider an SIR (Susceptible - Infectious - Removed) epidemic spreading on a configuration-model network (a random network with specified degree distribution), with the addition of some simple network dynamics.

The addition is to allow susceptible individuals to "drop" connections to infectious neighbours. A further extension permits such susceptible individuals to then "rewire" to connect instead with someone else in the population. Stochastic (and deterministic) epidemic models very often exhibit threshold behaviour where epidemics starting with few infective individuals either die out rapidly or take off and infect a large fraction of the population, and these models are no exception! The focus here is mainly on further analysis of the supercritical case where the epidemic can/does "take off".

For the model with dropping only (i.e. with no rewiring), we present some limit theorems (in the limit of large population size) for the temporal evolution and for the final size of the epidemic (the number of initially susceptible individuals that are ultimately  recovered). For the model with rewiring included too, we show that whilst the preventive behaviour of rewiring is always rational at the individual level, it may have negative consequences at the population level. This work is joint with Frank Ball (Nottingham), Tom Britton (Stockholm) and KaYin Leung (Stockholm).

As well as giving some detail about this work, I'll also talk briefly about some other work of a similar flavour that I'm involved in.

Hosted by Dr David Chappell

All Welcome

For any enquiries please contact Dr David Chappell

Location details

Room/Building:

169, New Hall Block

Address:

Nottingham Trent University
Clifton Campus
Clifton Lane
Nottingham
NG11 8NS

Past event

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