Covid-19 National Foresight Group publishes reports online ahead of a second wave

C19 NFG has already shared the reports with a wide variety of agencies, including central and local government and with more than 11,000 users of Resilience Direct, a platform to support people managing the pandemic in their local areas.

Public access to the reports has now been granted to encourage debate, discussion and provide an evidence base to shape the ongoing response and recovery effort as the UK moves towards the second wave of the virus. The publications can also play a valuable part in helping other nations to tackle the virus.

The independently chaired group started its work in March and includes representation from government departments, national agencies at the centre of ongoing Covid-19 response and recovery work, local strategic decision-making groups, academic representation through Nottingham Trent University and health agencies.

Working to urgent timescales and at a rapid pace, C19 NFG has produced a broad range of outputs. These include topic-themed weekly intelligence briefings which consider academic views on the likely impacts of Covid-19 and the measures taken to manage it; strategic roundtables which draw from the insights and experience of national portfolio holders and practitioners; focussed reports on aspects of the response and recovery work novel to the Covid-19 pandemic; and rapid reviews of the emergency management throughout the pandemic which were supported and facilitated by the Hydra Foundation.

The documents capture a variety of topics, including what emergency managers across the UK feel is going well, what could be improved, and what should be considered in the future at local, regional and national level. They also include foresight of the impacts of Covid-19 regarding denial of academic justice and learning, psychological impacts, foresight on volunteers, the shielding cohort, economic insecurity, addiction, domestic abuse, prisons, custody and probation, suicide, health and social inequalities and equity, impacts on emergency managers, advice on preparing for festivities, communication of risk and health behaviours, impacts on children and young people and the pressures forecasted to be faced in the coming months.

Dr Rowena Hill, Associate Professor at Nottingham Trent University and the embedded scientist within the C19 NFG, said: “As we see a second wave of the virus beginning, our reports and products can play a vital role in supporting society to tackle Covid-19 across the UK and beyond, which is why we have decided to share them publicly.

“We are keen to ensure that these important findings are not ignored and that the correct people are learning from and acting on our work. The coming months will bring many demands as winter pressures, seasonal flu and EU Transition all add additional load to a hardworking but stretched system. The release of these documents is with the specific aim of supporting people and organisations to make informed decisions.”

Shaun West, Chair of C19 NFG, said: “The C19 National Foresight Group was born in March 2020 to identify foresight and lessons which have the potential to save lives, relieve suffering and support communities, protecting those most vulnerable. This represents a unique opportunity to learn mid crisis and shape the ongoing response and recovery effort.

“Since inception, I have commissioned in excess of 50 papers, comprising foresight intelligence, strategic roundtables and rapid reviews providing opportunity for Local Resilience Forums, partners and government departments to reflect beyond their present challenges and consider the long tail of Covid. Nottingham Trent University and Hydra Foundation have been key and integral contributors to these products.

“The lessons and recommendations from the Group’s products have so far been shared with those colleagues dealing directly with the unprecedented challenges presented by the first spike of Covid-19. Through the excellent work of Local Resilience Forums, their partners and local authorities, many of these lessons shared have been acted upon and are at the heart of the response. It has also been shared with those in a position to inform and influence national policy. At times, in my view, this has been met with a pedestrian and perfunctory response and I am not convinced, despite excellent civil servants on our group, that our foresight has penetrated the ministerial ceiling.

“As we enter a second spike, it appears to me that there is a compelling argument to share the C19 National Foresight Group products wider than those who usually receive it and I am pleased that Nottingham Trent University now host these on their website. We must take advantage of these lessons and this transparency also provides for our communities to be well informed, shape the response and recovery in the face of a second spike and satisfy public interest.”

The reports are available view online