Crime rates have been falling dramatically over two decades, a phenomenon typically referred to as the "crime drop". What still remains puzzling, however, is why most crimes – including violent crimes – have fallen. The current gap in knowledge impedes violence reduction opportunities, not just in the UK but across the world.
To fill this gap, social scientists have joined forces to examine the fall in violence over the past decades. This project, referred to as The Violence Trends Project, is undertaken by Professor Andromachi Tseloni, Department of Social Sciences, Nottingham Trent University (Principle Investigator), Dr Soenita Ganpat (Research Associate), Professor Graham Farrell, Professor Nick Tilley, Dr Rebecca Thompson, and Dr Laura Garius (Co-Investigators), with funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Secondary Data Analysis Initiative (SDAI) Phase 2.
The Violence Trends Project focuses on answering the question: "What is the role of population group – and context-specific changes in personal security and routine activities in explaining the decline in stranger and acquaintance violence?"
To this end, national and international data sets, including the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), and the International Crime Victim Survey (ICVS), will be analysed. Innovative research methodology will be employed, including some that has been developed by the project members.
In addition, an Advisory Committee (AC) has been set up, which ensures a significant input from practitioners and policy-makers in the research (see "Working with Us").
Ultimately, this research will make a major scientific contribution with immediate and high societal and economic impact. Its theoretical and methodological advancements will inform future research developments in criminology.
The Violence Trends Project started on 1 February 2015, and will last for 18 months (period February 2015 – July 2016).
Follow @project_vio to join the project on Twitter.
The Conference of the Violence Trends Project
Wednesday 29 June 2016
9.30 am – 3.30 pm, Galleries of Justice, Nottingham
This one-day conference offers an opportunity for academics, policy-makers and practitioners to join in a discussion on explaining and sustaining the decline in stranger and acquaintance violence.
To find out more and to register for this event, see The Conference of the Violence Trends project event listing.
- Professor Andromachi Tseloni – Principle Investigator
- Dr Soenita Ganpat – Research Associate
- Professor Graham Farrell – Co-Investigator
- Professor Nick Tilley – Co-Investigator
- Dr Rebecca Thompson – Co-Investigator
- Dr Laura Garius – Co-Investigator
- Home Office, Crime Statistics Programme, Home Office Statistics
- Office for National Statistics
- Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership
- Life Skills Education
1. Burglary Security Project
The Violence Trends project follows on from previous work on: 'Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context?'
This was also supported by an ESRC, SDAI Phase 1 grant (2013-2015) awarded to the research team (G. Farrell, L. Grove, N. Tilley and A. Tseloni) and led by Professor Andromachi Tseloni. View more.
2. Explaining and Sustaining the International Crime Drop
Both projects on burglary security and violence trends draw on earlier work which looked at:
Sustaining the Crime Drop in Industrialised Nations: A Crime-Specific Problem-Solving Approach. It was funded by the ESRC and the research team (G. Farrell, N. Tilley and A. Tseloni) was led by Professor Graham Farrell (2007-2009). View more.
Our key publications on this research area include:
- Farrell, G. (2013) 'Five tests for a theory of the crime drop'. Crime Science 2(1): 1-8
- Farrell, G. and P. J. Brantingham (2013) 'The crime drop and the General Social Survey'. Canadian Public Policy34(4): 559-580
- Farrell, G., N. Tilley and A. Tseloni (2015) 'Why the crime drop?' in M. Tonry (Ed.) Why Crime Rates Fall and Why They Don't, Crime and Justice: A Review of Research volume 43. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 421-490
- Farrell, G. N. Tilley, A Tseloni and J. Mailley (2008). 'The crime drop and the security hypothesis' British Society of Criminology Newsletter, 62: 17-21
- Farrell, G., Tilley, N., Tseloni, A., & Mailley, J. (2010). Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: Clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories. Crime Prevention & Community Safety, 12(1), 24-41
- Farrell, G., A. Tseloni and J. Mailley, and N. Tilley (2011). 'The crime drop and the security hypothesis' Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(2): 147-175
- Farrell, G., A. Tseloni and N. Tilley (2011). 'The effectiveness of car security devices and their role in the crime drop' Criminology and Criminal Justice, 11(1): 21-35
- Thompson, R. (2014) 'How theft and robbery have changed since the 90s'.Significance: Statistics Making Sense, 11(5): 88. London: The Royal Statistical Society
- Tilley, N., G. Farrell and R.V. Clarke. (2015) 'Target Suitability and the Crime Drop' in M. Andresen and G. Farrell (Eds.) The Criminal Act: The Role and Influence of Routine Activity Theory. London: Palgrave Macmillan: pp. 59-76
- Tilley, N., G. Farrell, L.E. Grove, R. Thompson and A. Tseloni. (2015) 'Do burglar alarms increase burglary risk? A counterintuitive finding and possible explanations' Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal 17(1): 1-19
- Tilley, N., A. Tseloni and G. Farrell (2011). 'Income disparities of burglary risk: Security availability and the crime drop' British Journal of Criminology, 51: 296-313
- Tseloni, A., G. Farrell, N. Tilley, L. Grove, R. Thompson and L. Garius (2012). 'Towards a comprehensive research plan on opportunity theory and the crime falls' in J.J.M. van Dijk et al. (eds.) The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. (pp. 286-299)
- Tseloni, A., Mailley, J., Farrell, G., & Tilley, N. (2010). Exploring the international decline in crime rates. European Journal of Criminology, 7(5): 375-394
- Tseloni, A. and Thompson, R. (2015) 'Securing the premises' Significance: Statistics Making Sense, 12(1): 32-35. London: The Royal Statistical Society
- Tseloni, A., Thompson, R., Grove, L., Tilley, N. and G. Farrell (2014) 'The effectiveness of burglary security devices' Security Journal 1 - 19
- Van Dijk, J. Tseloni, A. and Farrell, G. (2012). The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research. Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN: 978-0-230-30265-5
- Van Dijk, J.J.M., A. Tseloni and G. Farrell. (2012). 'Understanding international crime trends – A summing up' in J.J.M. van Dijk et al. (eds.) The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. (pp. 300-320)
Preliminary results have been presented at national and international events and conferences:
‘Risk and protective factors of stranger and acquaintance violence in the UK'. In the session: ‘Crime Drop Research’, American Society of Criminology, 41st Annual Meeting 2015, Washington DC, 18-21 Nov. 2015
'Routine Activities, Personal Security and Stranger and Acquaintance Violence Victimisation in England and Wales'. In the session:
'Shop theft, burglary and violence: Individual, Area and Routine Activities Factors', 15th Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology, Porto, 2-5 Sep. 2015
'Did Security Cause the Violent Crime Drop?' In the session: 'The International Crime Drop and the Security Hypothesis', Stockholm Criminology Symposium, Stockholm, 8-10 Jun. 2015
'On the association between routine activities and the decline in stranger and acquaintance violence'. In the session: 'Changing patterns of crime and the crime drop' Stockholm Criminology Symposium, Stockholm, 8-10 Jun. 2015
'Illicit heroin use and post-war crime trends in England and Wales.' Stockholm Criminology Symposium, Stockholm, 8-10 Jun. 2015
‘Stranger and Acquaintance Violence: National Trends and Risk Factors’. Nottingham Crime & Drugs Partnership Board, Nottingham, 14 March 2016
‘Risk and protective factors of stranger and acquaintance violence'. In the session: ‘Crime Drop Research’, Alternative Futures Conference 2016, Nottingham Trent University, 24 Feb. 2016
‘Keep burglars in the dark - Choose Safe Venues and Companions for Drinking & Dancing’, ESRC Secondary Data Analysis Initiative (SDAI) Event, London, 29 Feb. 2016
Poster presentation ‘Violence Trends project’. College of Policing Evidence Based Policing Showcase, Ryton, 11 May 2016
‘Risk and protective factors of stranger and acquaintance violence victimisation in England and Wales’. In the session: ‘Victimisation and participation divides’. Stockholm Criminology Symposium, Stockholm, 14–16 Jun. 2016
‘Explaining and Sustaining the Decline in Stranger and Acquaintance Violence’. End of Project Conference: Explaining and Sustaining the Decline in Stranger and Acquaintance Violence, Nottingham, 29 Jun. 2016
‘Trends in Violence Victimisation: Incidence Rates, Prevalence and Crime Concentration of
Stranger and Acquaintance Violence’. British Society of Criminology, Nottingham, 6–8 July 2016
End of Project Conference: Violence Trends project
- Conference Summary
- Confirmed Conference Programme
- Conference Final Attendees List
- Paddy Tipping Bio
- Alex Murray Bio
- Research Team Violence Trends Project Bios
- Speakers Practical Implications and Chair Bios
- Dr John Larsen Presentation
- Facilitators Round Table
- Information for Facilitators
- Information for Practical Implication Speakers
- Round Table Discussions - Outcomes
- Advisory Committee List
- Key Publications on the Crime Drop by the Research Team