Raft of targeted conservation efforts may help boost leopard numbers in sub-Saharan Africa, study suggests
There could be fewer leopards living across sub-Saharan Africa than previously believed, according to a new study which has analysed suitable habitat and conditions.
Published on 6 July 2026
It is hoped that the research, led by conservation scientists at Nottingham Trent University, could be used to help plan vital recovery efforts and focus conservation where it is most needed. Leopard numbers are falling due to factors such as habitat loss, lack of prey and trophy hunting, and they have disappeared from more than 41% of areas where they once lived – but there is a lack of reliable information on how many remain across their full range.
As part of the study the team gathered a range of previous data on leopard populations across sub-Saharan Africa. They then used that information to develop a model to predict leopard numbers today based on current habitat quality and human pressures – along with how many could potentially exist if conditions improved.
The researchers predict that there could be 45,000 to 143,000 leopards in the wild – lower than previous estimates – but that, encouragingly, Africa could potentially support up to 176,000 leopards within their historical range if appropriate conservation steps are taken.
The team caveats that their numbers are not the same as a population count, however, because a lot of the data relates to protected areas which tend to have healthier ecosystems for leopards than areas where people live and farm.
Leopards were less common in areas with high levels of human activity, the study showed, particularly where livestock numbers were high, settlements were nearby and the landscape was dominated by agriculture. They were greater in areas with healthy populations of prey, particularly ungulates, such as deer, and wild pigs.
The study also raises serious concerns regarding trophy hunting, with currently international leopard hunting quotas exceeding what is considered sustainable in more than half of the countries assessed – indicating how hunting could be contributing to leopards’ decline.
Only a small fraction of adult male leopards – roughly 2,800–8,700 – live outside protected areas in countries where trophy hunting is allowed, the research suggested. The study makes it possible to identify where conservation efforts such as habitat protection, prey recovery, or reduced conflict with people would have the greatest benefit. The researchers argue that there is a need to urgently review and revise hunting quotas in several countries.
A lack of reliable numbers makes it hard for governments and conservation organisations to plan effective protection and recovery efforts. - (Dr Antonio Uzal, Associate Professor of Conservation Biology in NTU ARES).
Dr Antonio Uzal further said
Our work provides practical guidance for conservation and clear, location-specific targets for leopard recovery. It shows where protection efforts will work best and can support countries in focusing their work both inside and outside protected areas.
Dr Antonio Uzal
A young female leopard climbs down a tree in Kruger National Park, South Africa (Image Julien Fattebert)
Co-author, Dr Julien Fattebert, Research Professor at the Vilnius University, Lithuania and Research Associate at the Nelson Mandela University, South Africa, said:
“We also raise serious concerns about leopard trophy hunting, as current hunting quotas are based on outdated and overestimated population figures. We are calling for hunting quotas to be urgently reviewed using up-to-date information, alongside regular field surveys, to avoid further population declines and support long-term leopard conservation.”
In areas outside protected areas, where it is less clear how many leopards still survive, targeted camera trapping and habitat restoration should be prioritised, the researchers say, and reintroductions considered where appropriate.
First author Kalpapran Patowary, a doctoral student at the Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation at Clemson University in the US, and who was at NTU at the time of the study, said:
Our main goal was to get an idea of leopards’ status in terms of possible numbers across the spatial spread of sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that time and resources should be focused on regions where leopards may still be present but are underrepresented – this is particularly the case in Western African countries.
Kalpapran Patowary, Clemson University, USA
The research is published in the Journal of Applied Ecology. Read more about Dr Antonio Uzal's project work on the Ecological Restoration Partnership at Brackenhurst in Kenya on the EAC research project page.