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C19 National Foresight Group Outputs

Below you will find our outputs available to the public at this time. These are split between Intelligence Briefings, Strategic Roundtables, Rapid Reviews and a number of standalone outputs.

Standalone Outputs

These standalone outputs highlight a number of the broad topics we were commissioned to explore by the C19 National Foresight Group. They were normally completed as reports or briefings to inform foresight thinking and planning by partners and those engaged with the Covid-19 pandemic.


C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing - Communications and the Covid-19 Pandemic

This briefing was developed from the September rapid review and summarises emergent findings suggesting a need for the development of a communication strategy and advising on the principles of the content.

Rowena Hill, Rich Pickford, Shaun West and Adam Potter
23/09/20

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Community
  • Following the Rules
  • Communication

C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing - Biosecurity and national security inquiry: National Security Strategy (Joint Committee)

This submission outlines the main themes and overall findings from our range of work. It was submitted to the biosecurity and national security inquiry (Joint Committee).

Rowena Hill and Rich Pickford
September 2020

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Emergency Management Structures
  • Communication

C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing - Customer and Staff Compliance

The ways in which businesses, hospitality and commerce can model and encourage compliance to Covid-19 restrictions are outlined in this paper.

Rich Pickford, Adam Potter and Rowena Hill
23/09/20

Themes

  • Work
  • Community
  • Following the Rules

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Rationale to Extend the Flu Vaccine

This paper sets out the rationale to extend the flu vaccine to a wider group of occupations, in order to protect public service and critical infrastructure.

Rowena Hill
17/09/20

Themes

  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Health Protection
  • At Risk Populations

C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing - Psychological Impacts of Working through Covid-19 for LRF Partner Organisations

This briefing outlines the support available to those working in Local Resilience Forum partner organisations, to help manage the psychological impacts from Covid-19.

Rowena Hill and Shaun West
12/08/20

Themes

  • Work
  • Community
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Psychological Impacts

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Local Lockdown Learning

In this report, we summarise learning from the early experiences of local health protection areas in the Summer of 2020.

Rowena Hill, Kelly Smith and Rich Pickford
24/07/20

Themes

  • Health Protection
  • Community
  • Following the Rules
  • Health and Wellbeing

C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing - Economic Insecurity: A Compendium of Intelligence Briefing Papers for the United Kingdom

This collection of papers reviews a broad range of impacts from Covid-19 as a consequence of increased economic insecurity.

Stephanie Blanco, Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith, Mhairi Bowe, Blerina Kellezi, Juliet Wakefield, Clifford Stevenson, Ian Clark, James Hunter, Huw Fearnall-Williams and Rowena Hill
13/07/20

Themes

  • Economics
  • Inequality
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Work

C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing -LRF Similarity App Explainer

In order to aid local decision-makers to connect with other local decision-makers with similar challenges in the context of Covid-19, this bespoke app was designed in order to index them on similar demographics relevant to Covid-19. You can view the app through this link.

Sally Andrews, Rowena Hill and Rich Pickford
28/05/20

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Community
  • Inequality
  • Sharing Lessons

C19 National Foresight Group: Briefing -Foresight Framework Paper

The traditional pattern of response and recovery in emergency management are reviewed, challenged and an alternative is presented for the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rowena Hill and Andy Towler
21/04/20

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Sharing Lessons

Rapid Reviews

The rapid reviews commissioned by the C19 National Foresight Group provided a real-time reflection from frontline strategic leaders in the midst of the Covid-19 response. Hosted on a newly created online 10kv Cloud platform by Jonathan Crego and the Hydra Foundation they allowed for anonymous feedback and discussion to inform the development of policy and practice to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic and other concurrent emergencies. The C19 National Foresight Group commissioned three rapid reviews with the third conducted on Wednesday 16 September (currently being written up). Findings and recommendations have been distributed across Whitehall and local strategic leaders.

A team of NTU colleagues have analysed each line of delegates responses totalling over 90,000 words before themes and recommendations were developed by NTU and our subject matter experts. Each review report and summary presentation is uploaded below.


C19 National Foresight Group: Report - First Interim Operational Review

The first interim operational review (now titled rapid review) was conducted on Wednesday 22 April to understand and learn from strategic responders. It provided a window into the challenges, leading practice and future plans of this critical group. The review identified four findings and twenty one recommendations.

Rowena Hill, Duncan Guest, Andy Hopkinson, Andy Towler and Rich Pickford
11/05/20

C19 National Foresight Group: Presentation - First UK 10kv Rapid Review Analysis

The rapid analysis of the delegates responses was shared with the C19 NFG, Central Government and LRF Chairs via a series of presentation to support rapid learning. This presentation highlights the key early messages and asks of partners.

Rowena Hill, Duncan Guest, Andy Hopkinson, Andy Towler and Rich Pickford
28/04/20

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Emergency Management Structures
  • Sharing Lessons
  • Community
  • Health Protection

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Second Interim Operational Review

The second interim operational review (now titled rapid review) was conducted on Wednesday 17 June to understand and learn from strategic responders. It provided a window into the challenges, leading practice and future plans of this critical group. The review identified seven findings and twenty recommendations.

Rowena Hill, Duncan Guest, Rich Pickford, Andy Hopkinson, Tracy Daszkiewicz, Sue Whitton, Ian Reed, Andy Towler and Jonathan Crego
21/07/20

C19 National Foresight Group: Presentation - Second UK 10kv Rapid Review Analysis

The rapid analysis of the delegates responses was shared with the C19 NFG, Central Government and LRF Chairs via a series of presentation to support rapid learning. This presentation highlights the key early messages and asks of partners.

Rowena Hill, Duncan Guest, Rich Pickford, Andy Hopkinson, Tracy Daszkiewicz, Sue Whitton, Ian Reed, Andy Towler and Jonathan Crego
30/06/20

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Emergency Management Structures
  • Sharing Lessons
  • Community
  • Health Protection

Strategic Roundtables

The C19 National Foresight Group also commissioned us to produce a series of strategic roundtables. To date, we have produced three strategic roundtables. These have been written up as short briefing papers and longer reports to inform the group and partners. Each roundtable contained up to 25 participants who shared thoughts and ideas on questioned posed by the Chair of the C19 National Foresight Group. The roundtables focused on:

  • Structures and Frameworks of the Response/Recovery Relationship
  • Duality and Sustainability of Response and Recovery Structures, Scoping Local Outbreak Management of Covid-19
  • Mental Health and Wellbeing Impacts of Covid-19

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - First Recovery Strategic Roundtable Executive Summary

This strategic roundtable executive summary outlines the relationship between the response and recovery relationship relating to managing Covid-19

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - First Recovery Strategic Roundtable Report

The full report expands on insights gathered from participants at the roundtable and providers more detailed recommendations.

Rowena Hill, Shaun West and Rich Pickford
19/05/20

Themes

  • Disaster and Emergency Response
  • Sharing Lessons

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Second Recovery Strategic Roundtable Executive Summary

This strategic roundtable executive summary outlines the way response and recovery are occurring simultaneously and explores how this will affect the implementation of Local Outbreak management processes and systems.

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Second Recovery Strategic Roundtable Report

The full report expands on insights gathered from participants at the roundtable and providers more detailed recommendations.

Rowena Hill, Shaun West and Rich Pickford
04/06/20

Themes

  • Following the Rules
  • Community
  • Sharing Lessons

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Third Recovery Strategic Roundtable Executive Summary

This strategic roundtable executive summary explores the planning of a projected increase in mental health and wellbeing need created by Covid-19. It explores a number of documents and approaches and shares ideas to tackle this upcoming issue.

C19 National Foresight Group: Report - Third Recovery Strategic Roundtable Report

The full report expands on insights gathered from participants at the roundtable and providers more detailed recommendations.

Rowena Hill, Shaun West and Rich Pickford
25/06/20

Themes

  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Psychological Impacts
  • Sharing Lessons
  • At Risk Populations

Intelligence Briefings

The NTU Intelligence Briefings were created to inform the C19 National Foresight Group. Evidence related to Covid-19 psychological, social and economic trends are reviewed to inform, frame and prioritise discussions at national and local strategic decision-making level (LAs and LRFs). The C19 National Foresight Group synthesise data trends and academic findings across disciplines, with evidence of existing vulnerabilities and inequalities to start to build existing and emerging risk or adversity profiles of impacts from Covid-19.

They were created to be shared with national thought leaders, local strategic decision-makers, intel cells and those involved in populating the Multi-Agency Information Cells set up across the UK in response to Covid-19. These are not literature reviews but gathered insights from systematic literature reviews, rapid reviews, webpages, academic articles, pre-prints, academic expertise.


C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing 1 - Public Mood Data and Process and Chemical Addictions

Foresight relating to the possible change of pattern of addictions are presented in this paper as well as the tracking of public mood.

Sally  Andrews, Adam Potter and Rowena Hill
14/05/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Behaviour in Lockdown

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 2- YouGov, Apple Mobility and ONS data and Academic Denial Review

Tracking of public mood is reviewed in this paper, along with the impact of denial of academic justice (being able to get a just grade from an academic process) and the impact of missing educational opportunities and learning on learners across the age range.

Sally Andrews, Stacey Stewart and Clare Wood
21/05/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Education
  • Young People

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 3- Returning to Schools, Adherence to Guidance and Compliance with Lockdown Measures

Tracking of public mood is reviewed in this paper, along with the impact of returning to school for school-age children and their parents and the compliance and adherence to lockdown measures are reviewed.

Sally Andrews, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Stephanie Blanco and Rowena Hill
28/05/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Following the Rules
  • Behaviour in Lockdown

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 4- Risk Perception, Dementia and Missing Persons, Transport Trends and YouGov Data

This paper reviews public moods, public transport behaviours and the inference on Covid-19 transmission, how people's perception of risk could impact on their compliance to health behaviours and how lockdown measures could impact on police demand for calls to missing and at-risk individuals.

Sally Andrews, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Stephanie Blanco and Rowena Hill
04/06/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Behaviour in Lockdown
  • At Risk Populations

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 5- Data Trends and Community Health and Wellbeing

The public mood is reviewed in this paper as well as the likely psychological impacts on the health and wellbeing of society from Covid-19 and the measures used to manage it.

Sally Andrews, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco, Adam Potter and Rowena Hill
11/06/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Community
  • Psychological Impacts

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 6- Data Trends, Housing, food and fuel inequalities and EVP befriending

This document sets out the public mood trends to date. It also considers the impact of economic insecurity from C19 measures on housing, food and fuel bills. It also sets out principles to consider for inclusion in the Shielding policy and practices.

Sally Andrews, Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco, Adam Potter and Rowena Hill
18/06/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Inequality
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • At Risk Populations

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 7-Data Trends, Food, Fuel and Housing Insecurity

This paper covers the trends of public mood data and then reviews the consequences of Covid-19 on food, fuel and housing insecurity.

Sally Andrews, Rich Pickford, Clifford Stevenson, Mhairi Bowe, Blerina Kellizi, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco Adam Potter and Rowena Hill
25/06/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Economics
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Psychological Impacts

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 8 - PPE Summary

Personal Protective Equipment has become integral to mitigating the transmission of Covid-19. Here we review the procurement of PPE in the context of the UK likely demand, and within the context of the global supply chain.

Rich Pickford, Kelly Smith, Adam Potter, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco, Sally Andrews and Rowena Hill
254/06/20

Themes

  • Health and Wellbeing

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 10- Variation in place and Informal Workers

In this document, we include the aspects to consider in local variations of Covid-19 transmission and consequently, how the health protection between communities may require different resources and approaches.

Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith and Rowena Hill
09/07/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Work
  • Crime and Judicial Systems
  • Inequality

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 11 - Data Trends and impacts of Covid-19 on different groups

In this document, we summarise the data trends of the public mood. We also review the social and health inequalities experienced by different groups and how this directly impacts on their risk profile of Covid-19.

Lucy Justice, Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith and Rowena Hill
23/07/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Inequality
  • At Risk Populations

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 12 - Data Trends, Adherence within HPAs and Child Social Development

This paper reviews the public mood trends, we also review what is likely to impact on people's adherence to health protection areas. We also start to review the impacts on children, this links to paper 14 where we expand this information further.

Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Stephanie Blanco, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith, Lucy Justice and synthesised by Dr Rowena Hill
29/07/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Young People
  • Following the Rules
  • Health Protection

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 13 - Data Trends and Prisons

We review the public mood trends and then consider the UK's management of prisons during Covid-19 in an international context.

Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith, Lucy Justice and Rowena Hill
03/08/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Crime and Judicial Systems
  • At Risk Populations

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 14 - Data Trends and Children (additional material incl. Child Maintenance)

Here we review the impacts on children including on their social and emotional health, as well as their family relationships.

Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith, Lucy Justice, Rowena Hill and Rich Pickford
13/08/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Young People
  • Crime and Judicial Systems
  • Families

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 15 - Data Trends, Adherence in Businesses, Custody and Suicide

The public mood data is reviewed in this document, then the likely impacts on custody and prisons. We also review the likely factors on business compliance to Covid-19 measures.

Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith, Lucy Justice, Rowena Hill and Rich Pickford
20/08/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Crime and Judicial Systems
  • Following the Rules

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 16 - Data Trends, Economic Update and Community Offenders

We review the impacts of Covid-19 on the individuals and systems relating to management of offenders in the community. We also review the current impacts on the economy and also consider the public mood data trends.

Karen Slade, Lucy Justice, Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith,  Rowena Hill
26/08/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Crime and Judicial Systems
  • Economics

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 17 - Data Trends and C19 in Winter

This document furthers the discussions within the "Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21" report. We add further context and summarise that reports pertinent findings for local strategic decision-makers.

Lucy Justice, Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith and Rowena Hill
04/09/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Community
  • Work

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 18 -Data Trends and Whole Society Approach

In this document, we review the 'Whole of Society Approach' to resilience in response to the governmental review which closed in September. We review what it would mean and the associated risks and benefits.

Adam Potter, Stacey Stewart, Kelly Smith, Rich Pickford and Rowena Hill
10/09/2020

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Following the Rules
  • Community
  • Sharing Lessons

C19 National Foresight Group:  Intelligence Briefing Paper 19 -Data Trends and the Psychological Impacts of a second wave on Emergency Responders, Essential Workers and Frontline Staff

We explore the unique and extensive psychological impacts Covid-19 has had on the local responders, including emergency services, emergency managers, local authority personnel and those in emergency management structures such as Local Resilience Forums and associated structures.

Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith and Rowena Hill
16/09/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Health and Wellbeing
  • Work
  • Psychological Impacts

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 20 -Data Trends, Covid and the Under 29s and Festive Celebrations

This paper gives a review of the mood data for the public, provides an in-depth look at health behaviours, risk and communication to the under 29s and also suggests ways forward for families and communities to consider in order to celebrate festivities and mark them in Covid mitigating ways.

Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Lucy Justice, Rich Pickford and Rowena Hill
23/09/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Families
  • Community
  • Young People

C19 National Foresight Group: Intelligence Briefing Paper 21 -Data Trends and Covid Marshals

The review covers the benefits and risks of Covid Marshals and learning from other models both nationally and internationally.

Lucy Justice, Rich Pickford, Stacey Stewart, Adam Potter, Kelly Smith and Rowena Hill
01/10/20

Themes

  • Data Trends
  • Community
  • Following the Rules
  • Crime and Judicial System

NTU LRF Similarity App

To use the NTU LRF Similarity App please visit https://bit.ly/LRFsimilarity

These outputs and associated materials are Copyright © Nottingham Trent University and the report authors.

Dissemination, copying or further distribution of the report and materials must be requested by Nottingham Trent University and the Hydra Foundation in writing. We ask that outputs displayed here are cited and ask that users share how and where this material is used with us to support our ongoing work on Covid-19. We welcome the opportunity to discuss how you have used these outputs and will be looking to develop case studies which highlight their utility.

Please direct all questions and requests to C19Foresight@ntu.ac.uk

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