A Systems Approach to Nutritional Vulnerability: Modelling Population Risk During Food Supply Disruptions

Nottingham City is one of the most deprived local authority areas in England, with more than 30% of its neighbourhoods among the most deprived 10% nationally. Food insecurity is also a major concern: around a quarter of the city's neighbourhoods are among the highest-risk areas in England, and around 60% fall within the highest-risk fifth nationally. In the wider county, rural communities can be especially exposed to disruptions in the food supply.

This PhD project will investigate how factors such as dietary choices, health conditions requiring specialised diets (for example, coeliac disease or food allergies), age, sex, disability, income and food insecurity combine to make people more vulnerable during food system shocks. Rather than looking at each risk factor on its own, the research will take a systems approach, looking at how factors connect and interact, to identify hidden vulnerabilities that emergency planning may overlook. Using linked population, health, dietary and food system data, the researcher will model how different food shock scenarios could affect nutrition for communities across the city and county. A Community Advisory Group will help check and shape this work, highlighting groups who may be hit hardest, including people who rely on restricted diets, specialist foods or community food support services.

A key outcome will be a Nutritional Vulnerability Risk Matrix, a practical tool to help local organisations identify who is most at risk. Close involvement from local public health and council partners will help turn the findings into local planning and preparedness. The work will support targeted responses such as supplementation programmes, food fortification, community food initiatives and emergency food distribution, contributing to local ambitions to reduce health inequalities and improve nutritional security for all residents.

This project has been co-created with and is supported by researchers from the University of Nottingham and Nottingham Trent University, and partners at Nottingham City Council. The successful candidate for this project will be enrolled at the University of Nottingham.

Project Aims and Objectives

The aim of this project is to understand how interacting dietary, health, demographic and socioeconomic factors influence nutritional vulnerability during food system shocks, and to use this understanding to support evidence-based public health preparedness and response in Nottingham City and Nottinghamshire. Specific research questions include:

• What combinations of dietary practices, health conditions, demographic characteristics and socioeconomic circumstances are associated with heightened nutritional vulnerability during different types of food system shocks?

• Which macro- and micro-nutrients are most susceptible to disruption for different vulnerable population groups?

• How can linked health, demographic, dietary and food system data be used to develop a Nutritional Vulnerability Risk Matrix for Nottingham City and Nottinghamshire?

• How can understanding these vulnerabilities inform targeted interventions, including supplementation, food fortification and biofortification, community food support and emergency response planning?

What is Collaboratory?

Collaboratory is a research programme, led by Universities for Nottingham and the Leicester Universities Partnership, that places community knowledge and experience at the heart of research. This eight-year initiative is pioneering a new approach to collaboration, working closely with local communities and community-focused organisations to develop and deliver research that addresses the needs and priorities of local communities.