Skip to content

Covid-19 National Foresight Group publishes reports online ahead of a second wave

The C19 National Foresight Group (C19 NFG), set up to consider how Covid-19 would affect different groups, organisations and practices across society and to share rapid learning in order to save lives, relieve harm and support communities, has published a number of reports and products online, with more to be added in the future.

Woman wearing a mask
The reports have been released to help shape the response to a second wave of the virus

C19 NFG has already shared the reports with a wide variety of agencies, including central and local government and with more than 11,000 users of Resilience Direct, a platform to support people managing the pandemic in their local areas.

Public access to the reports has now been granted to encourage debate, discussion and provide an evidence base to shape the ongoing response and recovery effort as the UK moves towards the second wave of the virus. The publications can also play a valuable part in helping other nations to tackle the virus.

The independently chaired group started its work in March and includes representation from government departments, national agencies at the centre of ongoing Covid-19 response and recovery work, local strategic decision-making groups, academic representation through Nottingham Trent University and health agencies.

Working to urgent timescales and at a rapid pace, C19 NFG has produced a broad range of outputs. These include topic-themed weekly intelligence briefings which consider academic views on the likely impacts of Covid-19 and the measures taken to manage it; strategic roundtables which draw from the insights and experience of national portfolio holders and practitioners; focussed reports on aspects of the response and recovery work novel to the Covid-19 pandemic; and rapid reviews of the emergency management throughout the pandemic which were supported and facilitated by the Hydra Foundation.

The documents capture a variety of topics, including what emergency managers across the UK feel is going well, what could be improved, and what should be considered in the future at local, regional and national level. They also include foresight of the impacts of Covid-19 regarding denial of academic justice and learning, psychological impacts, foresight on volunteers, the shielding cohort, economic insecurity, addiction, domestic abuse, prisons, custody and probation, suicide, health and social inequalities and equity, impacts on emergency managers, advice on preparing for festivities, communication of risk and health behaviours, impacts on children and young people and the pressures forecasted to be faced in the coming months.

Dr Rowena Hill, Associate Professor at Nottingham Trent University and the embedded scientist within the C19 NFG, said: “As we see a second wave of the virus beginning, our reports and products can play a vital role in supporting society to tackle Covid-19 across the UK and beyond, which is why we have decided to share them publicly.

“We are keen to ensure that these important findings are not ignored and that the correct people are learning from and acting on our work. The coming months will bring many demands as winter pressures, seasonal flu and EU Transition all add additional load to a hardworking but stretched system. The release of these documents is with the specific aim of supporting people and organisations to make informed decisions.”

Shaun West, Chair of C19 NFG, said: “The C19 National Foresight Group was born in March 2020 to identify foresight and lessons which have the potential to save lives, relieve suffering and support communities, protecting those most vulnerable. This represents a unique opportunity to learn mid crisis and shape the ongoing response and recovery effort.

“Since inception, I have commissioned in excess of 50 papers, comprising foresight intelligence, strategic roundtables and rapid reviews providing opportunity for Local Resilience Forums, partners and government departments to reflect beyond their present challenges and consider the long tail of Covid. Nottingham Trent University and Hydra Foundation have been key and integral contributors to these products.

“The lessons and recommendations from the Group’s products have so far been shared with those colleagues dealing directly with the unprecedented challenges presented by the first spike of Covid-19. Through the excellent work of Local Resilience Forums, their partners and local authorities, many of these lessons shared have been acted upon and are at the heart of the response. It has also been shared with those in a position to inform and influence national policy. At times, in my view, this has been met with a pedestrian and perfunctory response and I am not convinced, despite excellent civil servants on our group, that our foresight has penetrated the ministerial ceiling.

“As we enter a second spike, it appears to me that there is a compelling argument to share the C19 National Foresight Group products wider than those who usually receive it and I am pleased that Nottingham Trent University now host these on their website. We must take advantage of these lessons and this transparency also provides for our communities to be well informed, shape the response and recovery in the face of a second spike and satisfy public interest.”

The reports are available view online

Nottingham Civic Exchange

Nottingham Civic Exchange has been established by Nottingham Trent University to maximise research, policy and practical impact by bringing together university expertise with partners seeking to address the needs of local communities. Nottingham Civic Exchange acts as a resource to look at social and economic issues in new ways. This means facilitating debate, acting as a bridge between research and policy debates, and developing practical projects at a local, city and regional level.

Visit our website - Contact us - Follow us - @NottsCivicEx

  • Notes for editors

    Press enquiries please contact Helen Breese, Public Relations Manager, on telephone +44 (0)115 848 8751, or via email.


    Shaun West is the Chair of C-19 National Foresight Group, connecting colleagues dealing directly with the unprecedented challenges presented by the first spike of Covid-19, through an innovative platform enabling cross-partnership reflection and continuous development in real-time.

    Shaun has commissioned in excess of 50 papers, comprising foresight intelligence, strategic roundtables and rapid reviews providing opportunity for Local Resilience Forums, partners and government departments to reflect beyond their present challenges and consider long term impact in collaboration with Hydra Foundation and Nottingham Trent University as academic partners.

    Shaun previously served as Assistant Chief Constable (partnerships) for Lincolnshire Police, Chair of the Lincolnshire Local Resilience Forum and Senior Responsible Officer for Lincolnshire Blue Light Programme.  He joined Lincolnshire Police in 1997 and has served in both uniform and detective roles throughout his career, including local policing, Community Safety, CID, Professional Standards, Public Protection and Operations Support. Shaun was the Head of the Specialist Operations in Lincolnshire before taking a seconded role in April 2014 as the lead for Armed Policing and Strategic Roads Policing for those forces within the EMOpSS collaborative team; Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire and Nottinghamshire.

    Shaun is a Specialist Strategic Firearms Commander, Gold Public Order Commander and Gold CBRN Commander. Shaun is also a Multi-Agency Gold Incident Commander, chairing in excess of 200 Strategic Coordination Groups (SCG) for such incidents as flooding, tidal surge, terrorism, protest and EU transition. Shaun has delivered training across England and internationally, for example Kosovo on behalf of EULEX Rule of Law mission and British Embassy. He is a peer reviewer with Local Government Association.

    Dr Rowena Hill is an Associate Professor at Nottingham Trent University’s School of Social Sciences. Her research seeks to understand the psychological and social impacts of emergency working. She has been working alongside the emergency services for the last fifteen years and has been involved in a range of research projects. Her primary research interests consider the impacts of disasters and emergencies on all those involved. She is involved in work with Local Resilience Forums to inform practice through evidence. She sits on a number of national committees and advisory groups relating to the blue light services. She has worked extensively across these sectors. Some of her projects relating to disaster management include the psychology of communications in warning and informing the public, projects exploring communication and decision-making within Strategic Co-ordinating Groups. Her other projects include the wellbeing and resilience of emergency service workers, the impact on families of working in the blue light sector and principles of blue light collaboration.

    About Nottingham Trent University

    Nottingham Trent University (NTU) was named University of the Year 2019 in the Guardian University Awards. The award was based on performance and improvement in the Guardian University Guide, retention of students from low-participation areas and attainment of BME students.

    NTU was also the Times Higher Education University of the Year 2017, and The Times and Sunday Times Modern University of the Year 2018. These awards recognise NTU for its high levels of student satisfaction, its quality of teaching, its engagement with employers, and its overall student experience.

    The university has been rated Gold in the Government’s Teaching Excellence Framework – the highest ranking available.

    It is one of the largest UK universities. With nearly 32,000 students and more than 4,000 staff located across four campuses, the University contributes £900m to the UK economy every year. With an international student population of more than 3,000 from around 100 countries, the University prides itself on its global outlook.

    The University is passionate about creating opportunities and its extensive outreach programme is designed to enable NTU to be a vehicle for social mobility. NTU is among the UK’s top five recruiters of students from disadvantaged backgrounds and was awarded University of the Year in the UK Social Mobility Awards 2019.

    A total of 82% of its graduates go on to graduate entry employment or graduate entry education or training within six months of leaving. Student satisfaction is high: NTU achieved an 87% satisfaction score in the 2020 National Student Survey, above the sector average of 83%.

Published on 6 October 2020
  • Category: Nottingham Civic Exchange; Press office; Research; School of Social Sciences